WILL WE HAVE A BREXIT DEAL?

Overnight FX Markets:

Investors used the weekend to take in fresh news coverage and revisit Friday's risk developments with a dose of criticism. GBP sold off after a mix of press articles highlighted hurdles in the UK-EU "tunnel talks." Chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier reportedly told at a briefing that UK proposals still fall short of providing grounds for a broader divorce agreement.

CHF appreciated, while NZD under-performed all of its G10 peers but GBP. A degree of unwinding some of Friday's moves, inspired by the limited, "phase one" U.S.-China trade accord, was evident. The vague terms of the truce & relatively guarded rhetoric from Chinese state media raised some eyebrows.

That said,the yuan posted solid gains. China's trade surplus was wider than expected but underpinned by pretty disappointing breakdown figures.

SGD strengthened as the MAS "reduced slightly the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band," although some called for more aggressive policy easing.

FX Related Economic News:

The week starts quiet on Monday with the release of data on EZ industrial production at 1000 BST being the highlight of the day. In the US there are no data publications scheduled.

FX Relative Performance

forex daily volatility

Interesting Stories of today

Trump Has Real Reasons to Fixate Over the Stock Market (Bloomberg Story)

New academic research finds that the market has a measurable influence on how people who own shares vote -- potentially a big one. The study, which compared electoral preferences with levels of dividend income, suggests that had stocks rallied instead of plunging in 2008, John McCain may have won key states like Florida and Ohio.

Trump tweet history

Stocks Rise After U.S.-China Trade Talks Progress: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg Story)

Shares from Sydney to Hong Kong climbed after President Donald Trump said the two sides agreed to the outlines of a deal that could be signed as early as next month. S&P 500 futures gained after the U.S. equities gauge climbed to within 1.8% of a record on Friday. The yuan continued Friday’s advance and Treasury futures ticked up following the pickup in yields last week. Japan is shut for a holiday.

Treasury yield curve


Kurds strike deal with Russia and Syria to stem Turkish assault (FT Story)

Kurdish forces say they have struck a deal with the Syrian regime and its Russian backers to stem a Turkish military assault, in a dramatic shift that came just hours after Donald Trump ordered the evacuation of the remaining US forces in the country’s north-east.

Syria-Turkey border invasion

Posted on

October 14, 2019

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