Brexit, the possibility of the BoE cutting rates (rather than of raising),and poor economic data seem to be dragging the GBP down. Also, UK employment data did not help the GBP with both the Claimant Count and Employment Change missing expectations. The UK political environment, and the possibility of Boris Johnson becoming PM doesn’t seem to be motivating the cable either. Media mentioned that Brexit talks seem to be getting more hostile and noted that a meeting between negotiators last week was one of the worst since 2016.

Oil prices corrected slightly yesterday as oil production resumed in the Gulf of Mexico according to media. Also, US shale oil production is expected to rise to record levels and increasing supply further (output is expected to rise to a record 8.55 million bpd according to the EIA report).

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Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow

Today, during the European session, we get UK’s employment data for May and Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator for July. In the American session we get the US retail sales growth rates for June, as well as the US industrial production growth rate for June. Late in the American session, as already mentioned the API weekly crude oil inventories figure is to be released. Please note that Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak today in Paris, at the “Bretton Woods: 75 years later”, however we would not be surprised to see some comments about monetary policy slipping. Also, please note that ECB member Villeroy de Galhau, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans are also scheduled to speak. On second note, EU Parliament is to vote to confirm Ursula von der Leyen as the new EU Commission president, which under some circumstances could provide some uncertainty for the common currency.

GBP/USD H4

WTI H4

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