WILL THE FED CUT RATES?

FX Overnight Markets:

The imminent FOMC monetary policy decision kept participants cautious overnight,after yesterday's reports questioning the potential for a finalization of the initial U.S.-China agreement at the APEC summit next month put them on alert.With G10 crosses oscillating within very tight ranges, JPY stayed afloat and marginally outperforms its peers from the G10 basket.

Australian Q3 CPI numbers matched expectations, putting a brief & modest bid into Antipodean FX. Breakdown data revealed a slight miss & slowdown in the weighted median metrics, even as headline Y/Y figure accelerated a tad (still sub-RBA targetrange). The Antipodeans are the worst G10 performers at typing.

KRW sold off sharply amid talk of investors buying the recent dip. KRW absorbed the U.S.-China news flow at the open, which exacerbated its plight and prompted USD/KRW to start the session above its 200-DMA.

Apart from the Fed, the BoC will deliver its policy decision. Pressers from Fed Chair Powell and BoC Gov Poloz will be in focus; elsewhere, ECB's Lautenschlaeger,Enria and Rehn will also speak. Data highlights include U.S. & French GDPs,German jobs & CPI data, as well as EZ sentiment gauges.

FX Related Economic News:

Wednesday's data calendar throws up a busy schedule. The main data events to look out for in Europe are the release of French GDP at 0630 GMT and the Eurozone's economic sentiment indicator at 1000 GMT. In the US the publication of Q3 GDP figures will be closely watched at 1230 GMT.

Also, the Federal Reserve's policy call and the Bank of Canada's announcement of their interest rate decision and the following press conference, speeches by ECB's outgoing Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Enria are worth noting in terms of events on Wednesday.

FX Relative Performance:

Forex relative volatility

Interesting Stories of Today:

How Boris Johnson’s Brexit Election Gamble Could Backfire (Bloomberg)

Boris Johnson has succeeded, finally, in getting Parliament to give him the general election that he wants. The polls have him far ahead: YouGov had 36% of voters backing his Conservatives, with Labour in second place on 23%. But his move is still a risky one. Here are the ways it could go wrong.

Stocks Struggle Before Fed Rate Decision, Powell: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)

U.S. equity-index futures drifted on Wednesday while stocks edged lower in Europe and Asia as markets largely entered a holding pattern in the countdown to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Treasuries ticked higher and the dollar slipped.

U.S. Equities price chart

QE Is Back in Europe. These Charts Show the Bond Market Winners (Bloomberg)

The European Central Bank is starting to pump billions into bonds again, stimulus that may further warp markets after its previous efforts drove yields down to record lows.

Strategists are modeling just how long the ECB can buy bonds for under its current self-imposed limits, designed to prevent the institution having undue influence over national governments. The central bank has 14 months before it hits the 33% threshold for Germany’s sovereign debt, but in countries such as Italy there is much more headway, according to Danske Bank A/S.

ECB bond buying chart

“The door is open to more negative interest rates,” said Rabobank’s McGuire, who is targeting a drop in peripheral euro-area yields versus their German peers. “As more investors are forced to seek higher ground, then these sovereign interest costs will fall.”

ECB rate cut chart

Posted on

October 30, 2019

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