WILL OIL REMAIN VOLATILE?

The interplay between soaring oil prices and flight to safety, set in motion by the Saturday drone strike at major Saudi Aramco facilities, drove trading activity overnight. The initial reaction unwound slightly, as U.S. President Trump authorized the release of oil from U.S. petroleum reserves to rebalance the market if needed.However, his warning that the U.S. remains "locked and loaded" added to geopolitical tensions.  

NOK & CAD were the big winners on firmer oil prices, even as the latter eased off highs. Cautious mood sparked appetite for safe havens & weighed on AUD & NZD (they were helped off lows by stronger commodities).

Risk-off & UK PM Johnson's hardline Brexit stance ahead of his meeting w/EU's Juncker pressured GBP.  

RUB easily outperformed its EM FX peers, with the likes of TRY, INR, PHP, or KRW facing selling pressure as crude rallied. USD/KRW advanced, but not quite enough to fill the gap registered as the rate played catch-up to the moves in USD/yuan pre-weekend, when South Korean markets were shut for holidays. A string of soft Chinese activity figures did little to improve the outlook.

Economic Data:

Its a quiet start to the week in Europe with the release of final Italian inflation figures at 0900 BST being the highlight of the day. In the US the publication of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 1330 BST is worth noting, while Canada's main data event is the release of figures on home sales at 1400 BST.

WTI Chart

WTI price chart
forex volatility chart

Posted on

September 16, 2019

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Market Updates

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