IS ENTHUSIASM ON US-CHINA TRADE TALKS GONE?

FX Overnight Markets:

Enthusiasm surrounding the touted U.S.-China tariff roll-back agreement dissipated as fresh comments muddied the water. Although a round of risk-on flows emerged as White House spokeswoman was "very optimistic" on the trade deal, the reaction was promptly corrected with White House trade advisor Navarro denying that there has been any agreement to remove existing tariffs.

High-beta FX lost ground eventually & safe havens regained some poise as participants grew skeptical toward earlier trade optimism. AUD landed at the bottom of the G10 basket; it slipped as the RBA's SoMP included a downgrade to the 2020 growth forecast, talk of slow wage growth keeping domestic inflation pressures in check, and a mention of "other policy options" being considered.

The yuan was unfazed by a wider than forecast Chinese trade surplus, underpinned by beats in both exports and imports. Elsewhere in Asia, INR softened after Moody's lowered India's outlook to negative from stable.

CHINA TRADE TALKS

FX Related Economic News:

The weekends with several data releases of note, including the publication of French industrial production at 0745GMT. On the other side of the Atlantic, the release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey at 1330GMT and the Preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index at 1500GMT are worth note.

FX Relative Performance:

FOREX RELATIVE STRENGTH

Posted on

November 8, 2019

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Market Updates

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