WILL THE CORONAVIRUS CONTINUE LEADING THE MARKET?
FX Overnight Markets:
All eyes were on updates re: Wuhan coronavirus, but G10 crosses respected tight ranges. Down ticks in NAB Business Confidence Survey out of Australia allowed AUD & NZD to break under yesterday's lows vs. USD, albeit only briefly. JPY & CHF traded on a softer note, even in the absence of outright risk-positive impulses. Japanese gov't nominated Seiji Adachi to replace his fellow reflationist Haradaon the BoJ's board.-
Offshore yuan regained some poise, with onshore markets still shut for LNY (as for now they are set tore-open on Monday). USD/CNH trades ~150 pips below its prior intraday peak & ~110 pips worse off on the day at typing.-
KRW & THB tumbled playing catch up to earlier mkt reaction to the coronavirus developments, as local markets re-opened after a holiday elongated weekend. USD/THB showed above its 200-DMA for the first time since Dec 2018. IDR sold off with BI intervening in bond, FX & DNDF markets to stabilize the rupiah.
FX Related Economic News:
Tuesday's data schedule remains quiet before the storm at the end of the week. The highlight in Europe is the release of the CBI distributive trades survey at 1100 GMT. In the US, the publication of data on durable goods orders at 1330 GMT and consumer confidence at 1500 GMT are the highlights.
FX Relative Performance:
- Earnings are due on Tuesday from Lockheed Martin, United Technologies and Apple; Wednesday brings reports from GE, Boeing and Facebook; Samsung Electronics, International Paper, Unilever and Shell report on Thursday, followed by South Korean chip maker SK Hynix, Chevron, Caterpillar and Exxon Mobil all on Friday.
- Fed policy makers on Wednesday are expected to open 2020 the same way they closed 2019 -- by holding interest rates steady.
- Goldman Sachs will hold its first-ever Investor Day on Wednesday.
- The BOE meeting is highly anticipated Thursday after a series of dovish comments raised speculation policy makers could lower interest rates.
- The U.S. reports fourth-quarter GDP Thursday.
- The U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union Friday.
Stocks Pull Back as China Bars Travel to Hong Kong (Bloomberg)
uropean stocks erased gains while U.S. index futures trimmed an advance as China restricted travel to Hong Kong in the latest international effort to curb the SARS-like virus from spreading. The yuan fluctuated and Treasuries turned higher.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gave up an early advance after Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said China will stop individual travelers to the territory while closing some border checkpoints and restricting flights and train services from the mainland. Contracts on the three main American equity indexes clung to moderate gains. Earlier in Asia, Japanese shares fell for a second day and equities slumped in South Korea as that market reopened after holidays. Trading is scheduled to resume in Hong Kong on Wednesday; the latest guidance from China, where the outbreak is still concentrated, is for markets to reopen on Monday.
January 28, 2020