IS A TRADE DEAL FOR REAL?
FX Opening News:
- More Global Times: US/China have basically reached a broad concensus deal
- China Global Times: What was discussed on US/China call today
- Japan auctions 40 year JGB bond 0.4600%
- USTR Lighthizer confirms call with China today....
- Xinhua: China and US have reached trade concensus on solving issues
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0344 (vs. yesterday at 7.0397)
- Option expiries for Tuesday, November 25
- Japan's Fin. Minister Aso: Japan needs to keep markets trust in government finances
- More from RBA Debelle: Need unemployment down near 4.5% to lift wages
- Fed's Powell: Current monetary policy likely to remain appropriate
- RBA Debelle: Sees steady wage growth over next couple of years
- Japan PPI services index YoY for October 2 .1% versus 1.6% estimate
- Pelosi: We are within range of a substantially improved USMCA trade agreement
- Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index 106.8 vs 109.9 last week
- New Zealand retail sales ex inflation for 3Q 1.6% versus 0.5% estimate
- New record closes for the major indices.
- ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US stocks rally to another record
FX Overnight Markets:
G10 FX price action was ltdto some very mild knee-jerk reactions to headlines from China's state media. A fleeting round of risk on flows emerged as Xinhua reported that top trade reps from the U.S. and China spoke by phone & agreed to keep in touch over sticking points in phase-one trade talks. Little of substance there, resultant price swings unwound promptly. Global Times then reported that there is still disagreement over the scale of tariff rollback.
USD/JPY posted an uptick upon the breach of its 200-DMA, whichprovided a layer of support subsequently. NZD/USD started by retracing its jump into the NY close caused by a beat in NZ retail sales,but regained poise thereafter.
The yuan responded to the aforementioned headlines, firmed up post-PBoC fix.
FX Economic Releases:
Tuesday throws up a very quiet data session in Europe, with little in the way of releases. There is a pick up into the afternoon session in the U.S., but the data remains largely second tier.
FX Overnight Volatility:
Stocks Drift With U.S. Futures; Treasuries Steady: Markets Wrap
Stocks traded mixed in Europe and Asia alongside U.S. equity futures as investors sized up the latest indications of progress from China in talks over a “phase-one” trade deal. The dollar drifted with Treasuries and European sovereign bonds.
China, U.S. Hold Phone Call in Sign of Progress on Phase 1 Deal
China and the U.S. “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a “phase one” trade deal during a phone call Tuesday morning Beijing time, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.
Four Ways the U.K. Election Could Play Out for Brexit
- Conservative Majority - Result: Boris Johnson’s Conservatives get more than 325 seats in Parliament.
- Little change - Result: The Tories are the largest party, but fall just short of a majority.
- Labour In, But Who Leads? - Result: The Conservatives have fewer than 300 seats, Labour loses ground too but enters government thanks to support from smaller parties. The Scottish National Party gets about 50 seats, the Liberal Democrats around 30, and a couple of former Conservatives running as independents somehow hold on.
- PM Corbyn - Result: The Conservatives sink to 280 seats, and Labour rise to a similar level. Corbyn secures the support of the SNP by offering the Scottish nationalists another independence referendum and becomes prime minister.
November 26, 2019